One of the most powerful analytical tools in machine learning and data science in the confusion matrix. The confusion matrix is capable of giving the researchers detailed information about how a machine learning classifier has performed with respect to the target classes in the dataset. A confusion matrix will demonstrate display examples that have been properly classified against misclassified examples. Let’s take a deeper look at how a confusion matrix is structured and how it can be interpreted.
What Is A Confusion Matrix?
Let’s start by giving a simple definition of a confusion matrix. A confusion matrix is a predictive analytics tool. Specifically, it is a table that displays and compares actual values with the model’s predicted values. Within the context of machine learning, a confusion matrix is utilized as a metric to analyze how a machine learning classifier performed on a dataset. A confusion matrix generates a visualization of metrics like precision, accuracy, specificity, and recall.
The reason that the confusion matrix is particularly useful is that, unlike other types of classification metrics such as simple accuracy, the confusion matrix generates a more complete picture of how a model performed. Only using a metric like accuracy can lead to a situation where the model is completely and consistently misidentifying one class, but it goes unnoticed because on average performance is good. Meanwhile, the confusion matrix gives a comparison of different values like False Negatives, True Negatives, False Positives, and True Positives.
Let’s define the different metrics that a confusion matrix represents.
Recall is the number of genuinely positive examples divided by the number of false-negative examples and total positive examples. In other words, recall is representative of the proportion of true positive examples that a machine learning model has classified. Recall is given as the percentage of positive examples the model was able to classify out of all the positive examples contained within the dataset. This value may also be referred to as the “hit rate”, and a related value is “sensitivity”, which describes the likelihood of recall, or the rate of genuine positive predictions.
Like recall, precision is a value that tracks a model’s performance in terms of positive example classification. Unlike recall though, precision is concerned with how many of the examples the model labeled positive were truly positive. In order to calculate this, the number of true positive examples are divided by the number of false-positive examples plus true positives.
To make the distinction between recall and precision clearer, precision aims to figure out the percentage of all examples labeled positive that were truly positive, while recall tracks the percent of all true positive examples that the model could recognize.
While recall and precision are values that track positive examples and the true positive rate, specificity quantifies the true negative rate or the number of examples the model defined as negative that were truly negative. This is calculated by taking the number of examples classified as negative and dividing them by the number of false-positive examples combined with the true negative examples.
Making Sense Of The Confusion Matrix
After defining necessary terms like precision, recall, sensitivity, and specificity, we can examine how these different values are represented within a confusion matrix. A confusion matrix is generated in cases of classification, applicable when there are two or more classes. The confusion matrix that is generated can be as tall and wide as is necessary, holding any desired number of classes, but for the purposes of simplicity, we’ll examine a 2 x 2 confusion matrix for a binary classification task.
As an example, assume that a classifier is being used to determine whether or not a patient has a disease. The features will be fed into the classifier, and the classifier will return one of two different classifications – either the patient does not have the disease or they do.
Let’s start with the left-hand side of the matrix. The left side of the confusion matrix represents the predictions that the classifier made for the individual classes. A binary classification task will have two rows here. Regarding the top portion of the matrix, it tracks the true values, the actual class labels, of the data instances.
Interpreting a confusion matrix can be done by examining where the rows and columns intersect. Check the predictions of the model against the true labels of the model. In this case, the True Positives values, the number of correct positive predictions, is located in the upper left corner. The false positives are found in the upper right corner, where the examples are actually negative but the classifier tagged it as positive.
The lower-left corner of the grid displays instances that the classifier has tagged as negative but were genuinely positive. Finally, the lower right corner of the confusion matrix is where the True Negative values are found, or where the genuinely false examples are.
When the dataset contains more than two classes, the matrix grows by that many classes. For example, if there are three classes, the matrix will be a 3 x 3 matrix. Regardless of the size of the confusion matrix, the method for interpreting them is exactly the same. The left-hand side contains the predicted values and the actual class labels run across the top. The instances that the classifier has correctly predicted run diagonally from the top-left to the bottom-right. By looking at the matrix you can discern the four predictive metrics discussed above.
For instance, you can calculate recall by taking the true positives and false negatives, adding them together, and dividing them by the number of true positive examples. Meanwhile, precision can be calculated by combining the false positives with the true positives, then dividing the value into the total number of true positives.
While one could spend time manually calculating metrics such as precision, recall, and specificity, these metrics are so commonly used that most machine learning libraries have methods of displaying them. For example, Scikit-learn for Python has a function generates a confusion matrix.
What is Bayes Theorem?
If you’ve been learning about data science or machine learning, there’s a good chance you’ve heard the term “Bayes Theorem” before, or a “Bayes classifier”. These concepts can be somewhat confusing, especially if you aren’t used to thinking of probability from a traditional, frequentist statistics perspective. This article will attempt to explain the principles behind Bayes Theorem and how it’s used in machine learning.
Defining Bayes Theorem
Bayes Theorem is a method of calculating conditional probability. The traditional method of calculating conditional probability (the probability that one event occurs given the occurrence of a different event) is to use the conditional probability formula, calculating the joint probability of event one and event two occurring at the same time, and then dividing it by the probability of event two occurring. However, conditional probability can also be calculated in a slightly different fashion by using Bayes Theorem.
When calculating conditional probability with Bayes theorem, you use the following steps:
- Determine the probability of condition B being true, assuming that condition A is true.
- Determine the probability of event A being true.
- Multiply the two probabilities together.
- Divide by the probability of event B occurring.
This means that the formula for Bayes Theorem could be expressed like this:
P(A|B) = P(B|A)*P(A) / P(B)
Calculating the conditional probability like this is especially useful when the reverse conditional probability can be easily calculated, or when calculating the joint probability would be too challenging.
A Practical Example
This might be easier to interpret if we spend some time looking at an example of how you would apply Bayesian reasoning and Bayes Theorem. Let’s assume you were playing a simple game where multiple participants tell you a story and you have to determine which one of the participants is lying to you. Let’s fill in the equation for Bayes Theorem with the variables in this hypothetical scenario.
We’re trying to predict whether each individual in the game is lying or telling the truth, so if there are three players apart from you, the categorical variables can be expressed as A1, A2, and A3. The evidence for their lies/truth is their behavior. Like when playing poker, you would look for certain “tells” that a person is lying and use those as bits of information to inform your guess. Or if you were allowed to question them it would be any evidence their story doesn’t add up. We can represent the evidence that a person is lying as B.
To be clear, we’re aiming to predict Probability(A is lying/telling the truth|given the evidence of their behavior). To do this we’d want to figure out the probability of B given A, or the probability that their behavior would occur given the person genuinely lying or telling the truth. You’re trying to determine under which conditions the behavior you are seeing would make the most sense. If there are three behaviors you are witnessing, you would do the calculation for each behavior. For example, P(B1, B2, B3 * A). You would then do this for every occurrence of A/for every person in the game aside from yourself. That’s this part of the equation above:
P(B1, B2, B3,|A) * P|A
Finally, we just divide that by the probability of B.
If we received any evidence about the actual probabilities in this equation, we would recreate our probability model, taking the new evidence into account. This is called updating your priors, as you update your assumptions about the prior probability of the observed events occurring.
Machine Learning Applications
The most common use of Bayes theorem when it comes to machine learning is in the form of the Naive Bayes algorithm.
Naive Bayes is used for the classification of both binary and multi-class datasets, Naive Bayes gets its name because the values assigned to the witnesses evidence/attributes – Bs in P(B1, B2, B3 * A) – are assumed to be independent of one another. It’s assumed that these attributes don’t impact each other in order to simplify the model and make calculations possible, instead of attempting the complex task of calculating the relationships between each of the attributes. Despite this simplified model, Naive Bayes tends to perform quite well as a classification algorithm, even when this assumption probably isn’t true (which is most of the time).
There are also commonly used variants of the Naive Bayes classifier such as Multinomial Naive Bayes, Bernoulli Naive Bayes, and Gaussian Naive Bayes.
Multinomial Naive Bayes algorithms are often used to classify documents, as it is effective at interpreting the frequency of words within a document.
Bernoulli Naive Bayes operates similarly to Multinomial Naive Bayes, but the predictions rendered by the algorithm are booleans. This means that when predicting a class the values will be binary, no or yes. In the domain of text classification, a Bernoulli Naive Bayes algorithm would assign the parameters a yes or no based on whether or not a word is found within the text document.
If the value of the predictors/features aren’t discrete but are instead continuous, Gaussian Naive Bayes can be used. It’s assumed that the values the continuous features have been sampled from a gaussian distribution.
What are RNNs and LSTMs in Deep Learning?
Many of the most impressive advances in natural language processing and AI chatbots are driven by Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks. RNNs and LSTMs are special neural network architectures that are able to process sequential data, data where chronological ordering matters. LSTMs are essentially improved versions of RNNs, capable of interpreting longer sequences of data. Let’s take a look at how RNNs and LSTMS are structured and how they enable the creation of sophisticated natural language processing systems.
Feed-Forward Neural Networks
So before we talk about how Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) and Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN) work, we should discuss the format of a neural network in general.
A neural network is intended to examine data and learn relevant patterns, so that these patterns can be applied to other data and new data can be classified. Neural networks are divided into three sections: an input layer, a hidden layer (or multiple hidden layers), and an output layer.
The input layer is what takes in the data into the neural network, while the hidden layers are what learn the patterns in the data. The hidden layers in the dataset are connected to the input and output layers by “weights” and “biases” which are just assumptions of how the data points are related to each other. These weights are adjusted during training. As the network trains, the model’s guesses about the training data (the output values) are compared against the actual training labels. During the course of training, the network should (hopefully) get more accurate at predicting relationships between data points, so it can accurately classify new data points. Deep neural networks are networks that have more layers in the middle/more hidden layers. The more hidden layers and more neurons/nodes the model has, the better the model can recognize patterns in the data.
Regular, feed-forward neural networks, like the ones I’ve described above are often called “dense neural networks”. These dense neural networks are combined with different network architectures that specialize in interpreting different kinds of data.
Recurrent Neural Networks
Recurrent Neural Networks take the general principle of feed-forward neural networks and enable them to handle sequential data by giving the model an internal memory. The “Recurrent” portion of the RNN name comes from the fact that the input and outputs loop. Once the output of the network is produced, the output is copied and returned to the network as input. When making a decision, not only the current input and output are analyzed, but the previous input is also considered. To put that another way, if the initial input for the network is X and the output is H, both H and X1 (the next input in the data sequence) are fed into the network for the next round of learning. In this way, the context of the data (the previous inputs) is preserved as the network trains.
The result of this architecture is that RNNs are capable fo handling sequential data. However, RNNs suffer from a couple of issues. RNNs suffer from the vanishing gradient and exploding gradient problems.
The length of sequences that an RNN can interpret are rather limited, especially in comparison to LSTMs.
Long Short-Term Memory Networks
Long Short-Term Memory networks can be considered extensions of RNNs, once more applying the concept of preserving the context of inputs. However, LSTMs have been modified in several important ways that allow them to interpret past data with superior methods. The alterations made to LSTMs deal with the vanishing gradient problem and enable LSTMs to consider much longer input sequences.
LSTM models are made up of three different components, or gates. There’s an input gate, an output gate, and a forget gate. Much like RNNs, LSTMs take inputs from the previous timestep into account when modifying the model’s memory and input weights. The input gate makes decisions about which values are important and should be let through the model. A sigmoid function is used in the input gate, which makes determinations about which values to pass on through the recurrent network. Zero drops the value, while 1 preserves it. A TanH function is used here as well, which decides how important to the model the input values are, ranging from -1 to 1.
After the current inputs and memory state are accounted for, the output gate decides which values to push to the next time step. In the output gate, the values are analyzed and assigned an importance ranging from -1 to 1. This regulates the data before it is carried on to the next time-step calculation. Finally, the job of the forget gate is to drop information that the model deems unnecessary to make a decision about the nature of the input values. The forget gate uses a sigmoid function on the values, outputting numbers between 0 (forget this) and 1 (keep this).
An LSTM neural network is made out of both special LSTM layers that can interpret sequential word data and the densely connected like those described above. Once the data moves through the LSTM layers, it proceeds into the densely connected layers.
What is K-Nearest Neighbors?
K-Nearest Neighbors is a machine learning technique and algorithm that can be used for both regression and classification tasks. K-Nearest Neighbors examines the labels of a chosen number of data points surrounding a target data point, in order to make a prediction about the class that the data point falls into. K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN) is a conceptually simple yet very powerful algorithm, and for those reasons, it’s one of the most popular machine learning algorithms. Let’s take a deep dive into the KNN algorithm and see exactly how it works. Having a good understanding of how KNN operates will let you appreciated the best and worst use cases for KNN.
An Overview Of KNN
Let’s visualize a dataset on a 2D plane. Picture a bunch of data points on a graph, spread out along the graph in small clusters. KNN examines the distribution of the data points and, depending on the arguments given to the model, it separates the data points into groups. These groups are then assigned a label. The primary assumption that a KNN model makes is that data points/instances which exist in close proximity to each other are highly similar, while if a data point is far away from another group it’s dissimilar to those data points.
A KNN model calculates similarity using the distance between two points on a graph. The greater the distance between the points, the less similar they are. There are multiple ways of calculating the distance between points, but the most common distance metric is just Euclidean distance (the distance between two points in a straight line).
KNN is a supervised learning algorithm, meaning that the examples in the dataset must have labels assigned to them/their classes must be known. There are two other important things to know about KNN. First, KNN is a non-parametric algorithm. This means that no assumptions about the dataset are made when the model is used. Rather, the model is constructed entirely from the provided data. Second, there is no splitting of the dataset into training and test sets when using KNN. KNN makes no generalizations between a training and testing set, so all the training data is also used when the model is asked to make predictions.
How The KNN Algorithm Operates
A KNN algorithm goes through three main phases as it is carried out:
- Setting K to the chosen number of neighbors.
- Calculating the distance between a provided/test example and the dataset examples.
- Sorting the calculated distances.
- Getting the labels of the top K entries.
- Returning a prediction about the test example.
In the first step, K is chosen by the user and it tells the algorithm how many neighbors (how many surrounding data points) should be considered when rendering a judgment about the group the target example belongs to. In the second step, note that the model checks the distance between the target example and every example in the dataset. The distances are then added into a list and sorted. Afterward, the sorted list is checked and the labels for the top K elements are returned. In other words, if K is set to 5, the model checks the labels of the top 5 closest data points to the target data point. When rendering a prediction about the target data point, it matters if the task is a regression or classification task. For a regression task, the mean of the top K labels is used, while the mode of the top K labels is used in the case of classification.
The exact mathematical operations used to carry out KNN differ depending on the chosen distance metric. If you would like to learn more about how the metrics are calculated, you can read about some of the most common distance metrics, such as Euclidean, Manhattan, and Minkowski.
Why The Value Of K Matters
The main limitation when using KNN is that in an improper value of K (the wrong number of neighbors to be considered) might be chosen. If this happen, the predictions that are returned can be off substantially. It’s very important that, when using a KNN algorithm, the proper value for K is chosen. You want to choose a value for K that maximizes the model’s ability to make predictions on unseen data while reducing the number of errors it makes.
Lower values of K mean that the predictions rendered by the KNN are less stable and reliable. To get an intuition of why this is so, consider a case where we have 7 neighbors around a target data point. Let’s assume that the KNN model is working with a K value of 2 (we’re asking it to look at the two closest neighbors to make a prediction). If the vast majority of the neighbors (five out of seven) belong to the Blue class, but the two closest neighbors just happen to be Red, the model will predict that the query example is Red. Despite the model’s guess, in such a scenario Blue would be a better guess.
If this is the case, why not just choose the highest K value we can? This is because telling the model to consider too many neighbors will also reduce accuracy. As the radius that the KNN model considers increases, it will eventually start considering data points that are closer to other groups than they are the target data point and misclassification will start occurring. For example, even if the point that was initially chosen was in one of the red regions above, if K was set too high, the model would reach into the other regions to consider points. When using a KNN model, different values of K are tried to see which value gives the model the best performance.
KNN Pros And Cons
Let’s examine some of the pros and cons of the KNN model.
KNN can be used for both regression and classification tasks, unlike some other supervised learning algorithms.
KNN is highly accurate and simple to use. It’s easy to interpret, understand, and implement.
KNN doesn’t make any assumptions about the data, meaning it can be used for a wide variety of problems.
KNN stores most or all of the data, which means that the model requires a lot of memory and its computationally expensive. Large datasets can also cause predictions to be take a long time.
KNN proves to be very sensitive to the scale of the dataset and it can be thrown off by irrelevant features fairly easily in comparison to other models.
K-Nearest Neighbors is one of the simplest machine learning algorithms. Despite how simple KNN is, in concept, it’s also a powerful algorithm that gives fairly high accuracy on most problems. When you use KNN, be sure to experiment with various values of K in order to find the number that provides the highest accuracy.
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