China Warns of Bubble Risk as 150 Companies Flood Humanoid Robot Market

China’s top economic planning agency issued a rare warning Thursday about the risk of a bubble forming in the country’s humanoid robotics industry, cautioning that more than 150 companies are flooding the market with nearly identical products.

National Development and Reform Commission spokesperson Li Chao told reporters at a Beijing press briefing that the humanoid robotics sector must balance “the speed of growth against the risk of bubbles.” The warning comes as investment pours into the sector despite limited proven use cases for the robots in factories or homes.

“Frontier industries have long grappled with the challenge of balancing the speed of growth against the risk of bubbles — an issue now confronting the humanoid robot sector as well,” Li said, according to state media Xinhua.

Li noted that humanoid robots “have yet to fully mature in terms of technological pathways, business models and application scenarios.” More than half of China’s 150-plus humanoid robot companies are startups or cross-sector entrants, she added, creating conditions for a glut of homogeneous products that could squeeze room for research and development.

A Strategic Industry Under Scrutiny

The warning marks a significant shift in tone from Beijing, which has positioned embodied intelligence — the technology powering humanoid robotics — as a core strategic priority. China’s 2025 government work report identified embodied AI alongside quantum technology, biomanufacturing, and 6G as key future industries requiring increased investment.

Humanoid robotics is one of six industries named by the ruling CCP as economic growth drivers for the country’s development plan through 2030. Earlier this year, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology established a standards committee led by founders of leading robotics firms Unitree and AgiBot.

Despite the regulatory concerns, investor enthusiasm remains strong. The Solactive China Humanoid Robotics Index, which tracks shares of Chinese humanoid robotics companies, has jumped approximately 38.91% percent this year. Several companies are racing toward IPOs, including Unitree and AgiBot, partly in response to tightening venture capital conditions.

China’s broader robotics dominance provides context for the surge. The country has accounted for more than half of the world’s new industrial robot installations since 2021. Its “robot density” — the number of robots per 10,000 employees — climbed from 97 in 2017 to 470 in 2023, nearly a fourfold increase.

Commercial Progress Amid Consolidation Push

Some companies are already demonstrating commercial traction. UBTech Robotics began mass production and delivery of its Walker S2 industrial humanoid robot in mid-November, shipping several hundred units to factory partners. The Shenzhen-based company has secured orders exceeding 800 million yuan (approximately $112 million) for its Walker series in 2025 and plans to deliver 500 units by year’s end.

UBTech’s customers include major automakers such as BYD, Geely Auto, and FAW-Volkswagen, along with logistics giant Foxconn. The company plans to expand production capacity to 5,000 units annually by 2026 and 10,000 by 2027.

Industry-wide shipments are projected to exceed 10,000 humanoid units in 2025, though this remains a small base for such intense investment activity. Citigroup expects “exponential” growth in production from Chinese humanoid robot makers next year.

To address the risks, the NDRC said it is working with relevant departments to strengthen policy support and accelerate technological breakthroughs. Li said authorities will improve market entry and exit mechanisms, promote consolidation and technology-sharing across the sector, and support essential research areas.

The government will also strengthen resources for testing and training facilities while encouraging companies to share knowledge and technology — a clear signal that Beijing wants the sector to flourish, but not at the cost of stability.

As China’s generative AI user base has doubled in recent months, the intersection of AI and robotics remains a national focus. Whether Beijing’s intervention can prevent a damaging correction while maintaining innovation momentum will test its ability to manage the development of strategic emerging industries.

The NDRC’s warning suggests that while China remains committed to leading in humanoid robotics, it is increasingly alert to the risks of speculative excess overwhelming genuine technological progress.